Water Demand Prediction utilizing Graph Federated Learning

  • Mathias Brucker

    Student thesis: Master's Thesis

    Abstract

    In recent years, there has been increasing focus on analyzing and predicting water
    resource management to optimize urban water supply. Advances in machine learning
    and AI have significantly inspired the development of smart water systems. This thesis explores the effectiveness of learning independent graphs in a federated learning
    environment, specifically comparing the performance of a federated model with a centralized model in predicting water demand. The study aims to address the challenges of
    managing distributed data using modern AI tools within a federated framework and to
    improve water demand networks by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques.
    The research employs a FedAVG setup with Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks,
    implemented on a test bench utilizing Apache Airflow, MlFlow and MinIO, allowing for
    extensive hyperparameter tuning and uniform experiment testing. Tests were realized
    to compare the performance of centralized clients against one federated learning setup
    comprising multiple clients. Results indicate that the centralized clients outperform the
    federated learning method so far. A significant observation was the slow learning rate
    of the graph convolutional model in centralized and federated learning. Analyzing the
    given data suggests that the model is not powerful enough for the complexity of data
    given. The findings underscore the challenges and potential improvements required for
    federated learning models, specifically in terms of computational efficiency and scalability. Enhancing the complexity of the model is crucial for improving learning rates and
    overall performance in federated environments, ultimately benefiting the accuracy and
    reliability of water demand prediction networks.
    Date of Award2024
    Original languageEnglish (American)
    SupervisorViktoria Dorfer (Supervisor) & Alexander Valentinitsch (Supervisor)

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