Ist die Globalisierung am Ende? Eine Analyse der Auswirkungen von globalen Abhängigkeiten und zunehmenden Protektionismus auf den Wohlstand in Europa

Abstract

The world is changing. Geopolitical conflicts around the globe, from Eastern Europe to the Middle East and the Pacific, are increasingly escalating into open acts of war. In addition to the resulting humanitarian disasters, they are causing trade barriers, trade blockades and rising protectionism in many countries. This situation threatens the globally interconnected world and its lifelines, the global trade routes. It therefore threatens globalism, on which the European Union as an externally oriented economy is dependent. These dependencies on raw materials, complex components, essential medicines, and on exports pose a major risk. A risk that, if it cannot be minimized and controlled, will endager the competitiveness and prosperity of the European Union. The aim of this paper is to analyse the interaction between globalization, competitiveness and prosperity, taking into account the dependencies of the European Union. For an overview of the initial situation, the most important terms are defined and the principles of global trade are described. In the following, the work deals with the events and conditions that currently have an impact on globalization. In the data analysis, specific data sets are evaluated in themselves, over time and in relation to each other, and these results are analyzed. In order to achieve the objective, this thesis uses statistical evaluations of data collected via Eurostat in addition to a literature research based on scientific literature, research results and current reports on events. These statistical evaluations include descriptive statistics and inferential statistical methods. The inferential statistical methods used include a single-factor analysis of variance to test the difference in a characteristic between its measurement points and a bivariate correlation test using Pearson's correlation. The literature suggests a correlation and consequently the effect of a change in globalization or competitiveness on prosperity. This correlation could not be proven to be significant in the statistical analysis in this thesis. It should be noted that at the time of the master's thesis, only data up to 2022 was available. As geopolitical events are constantly changing and also have a delayed effect, the years 2023 and 2024 as well as the coming years would be interesting for further research. It is clear that the current fragmentation of trade due to conflicts is already having a negative impact on the European Union and has the potential to have a profound impact on prosperity, competitiveness and globalization if it escalates further. For this reason, the European Union is currently trying to reduce its critical dependencies with strategies and laws, including reindustrialization, building up storage facilities and diversification. Even if these dependencies cannot be reduced in the medium term, the European Union can succeed in minimizing risks. In the long term, the critical dependencies can be overcome, whereby this success depends on the will and innovative strength of the European Union, its member states, companies and the population. Despite the current situation, the European Union continues to support globalization and free trade, even if it imposes sanctions in response to conflicts.

Date of Award	2024
Original language	German (Austria)
Supervisor	Tamara Albrecht (Supervisor)