Future-Proofing Innovation: Managing Manufacturing Risks and Uncertainty with Scenario Planning

Abstract

In today's rapidly evolving manufacturing landscape, organizations face significant challenges in managing risks and uncertainties within innovation projects. Traditional methodologies, while effective in maintaining process stability, often fall short in addressing the broader spectrum of potential outcomes. This thesis explores the integration of scenario planning with risk and uncertainty management to enhance decision-making and project resilience in the manufacturing sector. The research focuses on Borealis, a leading petrochemical company, as a case study. The primary objectives were to identify the benefits of scenario planning, analyse its compatibility with existing risk management practices, and develop actionable strategies to improve organizational preparedness. A multi-method approach was used, combining literature review, current process evaluation, semi-structured interviews with internal stakeholders and hybrid surveys with external participants with a benchmarking approach to provide a comprehensive perspective. Findings reveal that integrating scenario planning into risk management should allow organizations to better anticipate and prepare for a range of potential futures, providing a strategic and competitive advantage. This approach would help allocate resources more effectively, identify high-impact uncertainties, and implement tailored strategies to mitigate risks while leveraging opportunities. Specific results included uncovering process development opportunities, highlighting the need for dynamic tools, and proposing a scalable methodology to support scenario development within Borealis’ operations and project management practices. By bridging theoretical frameworks with practical applications, this thesis provides a roadmap for manufacturing companies to integrate scenario planning techniques into their project management process. The proposed scalable methodology can be incorporated and tailored to each individual case cultivating adaptability and resilience principles.

Date of Award	2024
Original language	English
Supervisor	Alexander Brendel-Schauberger (Supervisor)