Die Auswirkungen von Klimarisiken und -chancen auf den Unternehmenswert

: Eine Szenarioanalyse anhand der österreichischen Baubranche

Abstract

Climate change presents the construction industry with major ecological and economic challenges, as it is among the largest emitters of greenhouse gases both nationally and internationally. Against this background, physical and transitional climate risks and opportunities are gaining significant relevance. At the same time, regulatory pressure is increasing as with the introduction of the CSRD, ESRS, and IFRS S1 and S2, sustainability reporting becomes mandatory. As a result, the quantification of climate-related risks and opportunities and their financial materiality has moved into the spotlight. This thesis aims to examine how physical and transitional climate risks and opportunities affect the enterprise value of construction companies in Austria and how these companies are addressing regulatory requirements and broader ESG-related issues. The thesis is structured into four main thematic chapters. It begins with a systematic analysis of the national and international regulatory frameworks for sustainability reporting. Based on this foundation, a literature review identifies relevant climate risks and opportunities as well as mitigation strategies specific to the Austrian construction sector. Building on these findings, the empirical part of the study provides deeper insights into the perception and strategic relevance of ESG topics through expert interviews and explores which physical and transitional climate risks have been identified, and which mitigation strategies are planned or already implemented. Finally, a scenario analysis is conducted to quantify potential physical and transitional risks in order to better understand their financial implications for enterprise value. The results of the literature review and expert interviews consistently indicate that climaterelated risks and opportunities are a strategically relevant issue in Austria’s construction industry. Both ecological and financial impacts are being assessed, and concrete measures such as the use of low-emission materials, recycling, renewable energy, and digitalisation are already being implemented. Significant opportunities are emerging in areas such as renovation, circular economy, and the development of new market segments. With regard to financial impacts, the picture remains mixed: while the literature anticipates structural changes in the finance and insurance sectors, companies report only limited direct monetary effects to date. However, the scenario analysis conducted as part of this thesis shows that both physical and transitional climate risks as well as corresponding opportunities can have significant impacts on enterprise value, depending on the chosen climate scenario. In particular, the RCP 8.5 scenario reveals substantial value declines due to climate-related cost increases, whereas the RCP 2.6 scenario highlights long-term economic benefits from proactive transformation strategies.

Date of Award	2025
Original language	German (Austria)
Supervisor	Stefan Fink (Supervisor)