Auswirkungen der EZB-Zinspolitik auf das Venture-Capital-Finanzierungsvolumen in Österreich

Abstract

This thesis examines the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy on the Austrian Venture Capital market. The starting point is the observation that the macroeconomic environment has undergone a fundamental shift since the interest rate turnaround in 2022: rising rates have altered financing conditions, capital allocation, and valuation methods, with potentially far-reaching consequences for the high-risk asset class of Venture Capital. Against this backdrop, the central research question is: How do Venture Capital investors react to increasing refinancing costs and declining company valuations, and what adjustments can be observed in their investment practices toward start-ups? The relevance of this topic lies both in the macroeconomic importance of Venture Capital for innovation and growth, and in the fact that these interactions have not yet been sufficiently analyzed in the Austrian context. The structure of the thesis is divided into three main parts. First, the theoretical foundations of monetary policy, the functioning and mandate of the ECB, as well as the structure of the European and Austrian Venture Capital markets, are presented. This is followed by an indepth analysis of the interdependencies between interest rate developments and the specific mechanisms of the Venture Capital market. The empirical section is based on qualitative expert interviews with leading actors in the Austrian Venture Capital landscape. The methodology follows a guideline-based approach that systematically captures the perspectives of General Partners and evaluates them using qualitative content analysis. The combination of literature review and expert assessments provides both a solid theoretical embedding and practice-oriented insights. The findings demonstrate that rising ECB interest rates significantly influence the investment practices of Venture Capital providers. A central factor is the limited availability of liquidity: both Limited Partners and General Partners act more cautiously as funds for highrisk investments become scarcer. Company valuations have declined noticeably since the interest rate turnaround, strengthening the bargaining power of investors while simultaneously complicating exits. Moreover, the requirements for start-ups have become more stringent: investors demand robust business models, a clear path to profitability, and a stronger focus on measurable KPIs. With regard to the Austrian market, the analysis confirms that the reliance on foreign investors remains particularly high for large-scale financing rounds and that the domestic capital base is still insufficiently developed. Overall, the thesis highlights that monetary tightening since 2022 not only affects short-term market volumes but also entails long-term implications for the development of the Austrian Venture Capital ecosystem.

Date of Award	2025
Original language	German (Austria)
Supervisor	Tamara Albrecht (Supervisor)