A Systems Thinking Approach to Support the Design of Circular Soutions: Development of a Toolbox for Macro-Level Transitions.

Abstract

This thesis investigates how Systems Thinking (ST) tools can support the design of circular economy (CE) solutions at the macro level. There is a growing interest in circular strategies to address systemic barriers that limit their effectiveness, such as fragmented stakeholder engagement, regulatory complexity, cultural resistance, and infrastructural limitations. Additionally, there is a lack of practical guidance in the existing literature on how to apply ST methods to overcome these challenges in complex, multi-stakeholder environments. The research follows a three-phase methodology. First, four case studies (Milan, Bordeaux, Birmingham, and Victoria) were analyzed to identify the ST tools used in CE projects and to examine the categories of systemic challenges that emerged. These were then compared with those identified in the existing literature. This analysis revealed that, although some tools such as Theory of Change and Multi-Level Governance were adopted, critical issues remain unresolved. Second, ST tools were analysed in the book Design Journeys through Complex Systems (Jones & Ael, 2023). Subsequently, a workshop was conducted with thirteen Austrian experts in CE to evaluate each tool, gathering feedback through questionnaires and group discussions. Third, based on this feedback, a toolbox was designed as a flexible and modular process to help actors codesign circular interventions, plan actions, and monitor systemic change. The results show that tools like Outcome Map, Three Horizons Map, Paradoxing, Future State Scenarios, and Intervention Model are highly valued for guiding circular transitions in dynamic policy environments. The toolbox provides a step-by-step structure for involving stakeholders, identifying long-term goals, managing uncertainty, and developing adaptive strategies. Experts emphasized the importance of using tools in combination within collaborative workshops to ensure inclusive and context-sensitive solutions. In conclusion, the thesis offers a novel contribution by translating ST theory into a practical toolbox tailored for macro-level CE projects. However, its effectiveness needs to be validated through real-world applications to confirm its impact and enable broader adoption.

Date of Award	2025
Original language	English
Supervisor	Christiane Rau (Supervisor)