The long-term relationship between oil price changes and economic growth from the perspective of the resource curse: An empirical study from Yemen

A common conundrum discussed in economic research revolves around the fact that nations endowed with plentiful natural resources often exhibit a lower gross domestic product (GDP). This conundrum is commonly called the "resource curse", where most empirical studies about the effects primarily focused on developed economies. At the same time, limited data is available regarding a burgeoning oil-exporting nation like the Republic of Yemen. This research endeavor aims to investigate the relationship between oil price Changes and Yemen’s economic growth. Utilizing annual data spanning from 1990 to 2019, the study employs the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to establish the long-term connection between oil price volatility and economic growth over both short and long timeframes. This study’s outcomes indicate that oil price Changes have a significant positive relationship with Yemen’s economic growth in both the long and short run. Oil rents show a significant negative relationship with economic growth in both the long and short run. The results of GLM, RLS, and GMM robustness checks are consistent with our model results. Based on these findings, we suggest that Yemen should diversify its economy by investing in agriculture and tourism, and focus on human capital, education, and research and development. These steps could reduce the economy’s dependence on oil and enhance sustainable economic growth. These empirical insights and suggestions are particularly useful for policymakers as they help build sound external and economic policies to sustain long-term economic growth.