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Abstract
A two-stage supply chain is studied in this paper where customers provide demand forecasts to a manufacturer and update these forecasts on a rolling horizon basis. Stochastic forecast errors and a forecast bias, both related to periods before delivery, are modeled. Practical observations show that planning methods implemented in ERP (enterprise resource planning) systems often lead to instabilities in production plans that temporarily increase projected demands. From the manufacturer's point of view, this behavior is observed as an outlier in the demand forecast values. Therefore, two simple outlier correction methods are developed and a simulation study is conducted to evaluate their performance concerning forecast accuracy. In detail, the magnitude of each demand forecast is evaluated and if a certain threshold is reached, the forecast is corrected. The study shows that the application of the outlier correction for forecast values leads to significant forecast accuracy improvement if such planning instabilities occur.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | 2021 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2021 |
Publisher | Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. |
Pages | 1-12 |
Number of pages | 12 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 9781665433112 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 2021 |
Event | 2021 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2021 - Phoenix, United States Duration: 12 Dec 2021 → 15 Dec 2021 |
Publication series
Name | Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference |
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Volume | 2021-December |
ISSN (Print) | 0891-7736 |
Conference
Conference | 2021 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2021 |
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Country/Territory | United States |
City | Phoenix |
Period | 12.12.2021 → 15.12.2021 |
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2021 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2021
Seiringer, W. (Participant)
2021Activity: Participating in or organising an event › Participating in a conference, workshop, ...