TY - GEN
T1 - Simulation Evaluation of Automated Forecast Error Correction Based on Mean Percentage Error
AU - Zeiml, Sarah
AU - Seiler, Ulrich
AU - Altendorfer, Klaus
AU - Felberbauer, Thomas
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 IEEE.
PY - 2020/12/14
Y1 - 2020/12/14
N2 - A supplier-customer relationship is studied in this paper, where the customer provides demand forecasts that are updated on a rolling horizon basis. The forecasts show systematic and unsystematic errors related to periods before delivery. The paper presents a decision model to decide whether a recently presented forecast correction model should be applied or not. The introduced dynamic correction model is evaluated for different market scenarios, i.e., seasonal demand with periods with significantly higher or lower demand, and changing planning behaviors, where the systematic bias changes over time. The study shows that the application of the developed dynamic forecast correction model leads to significant forecast quality improvement. However, if no systematic forecast bias occurs, the correction reduces forecast accuracy.
AB - A supplier-customer relationship is studied in this paper, where the customer provides demand forecasts that are updated on a rolling horizon basis. The forecasts show systematic and unsystematic errors related to periods before delivery. The paper presents a decision model to decide whether a recently presented forecast correction model should be applied or not. The introduced dynamic correction model is evaluated for different market scenarios, i.e., seasonal demand with periods with significantly higher or lower demand, and changing planning behaviors, where the systematic bias changes over time. The study shows that the application of the developed dynamic forecast correction model leads to significant forecast quality improvement. However, if no systematic forecast bias occurs, the correction reduces forecast accuracy.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103907515&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384055
DO - 10.1109/WSC48552.2020.9384055
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85103907515
T3 - Proceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
SP - 1572
EP - 1583
BT - Proceedings of the 2020 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2020
A2 - Bae, K.-H.
A2 - Feng, B.
A2 - Kim, S.
A2 - Lazarova-Molnar, S.
A2 - Zheng, Z.
A2 - Roeder, T.
A2 - Thiesing, R.
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 2020 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2020
Y2 - 14 December 2020 through 18 December 2020
ER -