Regression methods for surrogate modeling of a real production system approximating the influence on inventory and tardiness

Simulation optimization is often conducted by applying optimization heuristics (e.g., genetic algorithms) whereby the simulation model delivers the objective function value for the respective parameter set. For real world simulation models, their evaluation time is a crucial constraint. This holds especially for material requirements planning (MRP) parameter optimization of real production systems with many products, because of an extensive search space. Approximating the objective function values by surrogate models can be applied to reduce the search space. Based on a real world production system simulation model, the performance of different regression models to identify simple surrogate models for fast objective function approximation is evaluated in this paper. Specifically, a focus is put on the relationship between the MRP parameters: lot-size and planned lead time, and the performance indicators: inventory and tardiness costs. The paper evaluates a set of simple regression models and compares their objective function fit.