Development of PV-Forecasting Methods: Evaluation, Applications and Economic Potentials

Forecasting energy production is the key to the optimization of renewable energy systems. In the underlying project, forecasting methods were developed and the evaluation of the forecasting methods was carried out using statistical methods as well as simulation studies allowing the assessment of the economic value of these forecasts. This paper focuses on the use and benefit of PV-power forecasts in general as well as the results of the studies on the forecasting methods developed within this project. It was found out that in Austria the so-called local players appear as the most relevant potential beneficiaries of a short-term forecast, because they are directly affected and can conduct short-term optimization. In addition, balancing groups will have a need of improved PV forecasts in the near future, as the standard load profile will be replaced by smart metering. Simulation studies on specific applications showed that the economic efficiency of an optimized control for a PV-battery system with forecasts is low, whereas the application of forecasts in the control of a hybrid PV-diesel system possesses a surprisingly high economic potential.