Comparison of numerical weather prediction solar irradiance forecasts in the US, Canada and Europe

Richard Perez, Elke Lorenz, Sophie Pelland, Mark Beauharnois, Glenn Van Knowe, Karl Hemker, Detlev Heinemann, Jan Remund, Stefan C. Müller, Wolfgang Traunmüller, Gerald Steinmaurer, David Pozo, Jose A. Ruiz-Arias, Vicente Lara-Fanego, Lourdes Ramirez-Santigosa, Martin Gaston-Romero, Luis M. Pomares

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

183 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This article combines and discusses three independent validations of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) multi-day forecast models that were conducted in the US, Canada and Europe. All forecast models are based directly or indirectly on numerical weather prediction (NWP). Two models are common to the three validation efforts - the ECMWF global model and the GFS-driven WRF mesoscale model - and allow general observations: (1) the GFS-based WRF- model forecasts do not perform as well as global forecast-based approaches such as ECMWF and (2) the simple averaging of models' output tends to perform better than individual models.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)305-326
Number of pages22
JournalSolar Energy
Volume94
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2013

Keywords

  • Forecast
  • Irradiance
  • Numerical weather prediction
  • Solar resource
  • Validation

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