Linking deterministic aggregate production planning with a stochastic simulation model using a planned utilization factor

Activity: Talk or presentationOral presentation


We consider a production system with a flow-shop structure inspired by a production company operating in the automotive sector with forecast errors. A hierarchical production planning approach is carried out in a simulation model whereby the periodically performed aggregate planning is implemented by a MIP-solver. To account for the stochastic behaviour of real production systems a planned utilization factor is introduced in the MIP model for the aggregate planning. In a simulation study, the influence of this planned utilization factor on overall costs and the influence of forecast errors on the optimal planned utilization are investigated for seasonal and constant monthly forecast / demand patterns. We identify a high cost reduction potential with implementing this planned utilization factor and for a specific scenario optimal values are derived. Furthermore, the study shows that higher forecast errors lead to lower optimal planned utilization values.
Period11 Oct 2013
Event title15. ASIM Fachtagung Simulation in Produktion und Logistik
Event typeConference
LocationPaderborn, Germany