The negative effect of a perceived lack of an installed base on technology adoption.

In this paper, I analyse the impact that a perceived lack of an installed base has on the adoption of technological products. I use the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), which considers perceived usefulness and ease-of-use as the central drivers of adoption and propose that the perceived lack of an installed base influences these two drivers. Based on cue utilisation theory, I further suggest that a perceived lack of an installed base can serve as an extrinsic cue of product quality deficiencies and difficulties with obtaining help and advice. In order to verify the supposed effect of a perceived lack of an installed base, I survey 162 households. The data shows that a perceived lack of an installed base of thermal solar systems (1) decreases their perceived usefulness and perceived ease-of-use and (2) acts as a mediator of the perceived risk. The study implies that managers launching technical innovations should develop strategies to influence consumers' perceptions of the current and the future installed base and communicate the development of the installed base to trigger adoption.