From Policy to Performance: Evaluating Circular Efficiency in Lithium Battery Recycling Across Global Supply Chains

As the global transition to electric mobility accelerates, the effective management of lithium-ion battery (LIB) waste has become a critical challenge for governments and industries working to align sustainability goals with operational realities. In this study, we introduce the Circular Efficiency Score (CES), a novel metric that quantifies the environmental return on LIB recycling efforts by accounting for both the benefits achieved and the structural burdens involved, such as transport distance and grid carbon intensity. Using a newly assembled country-level panel dataset covering the years 2005 to 2023, we examine how national infrastructure, energy systems, and policy frameworks jointly influence recycling efficiency across thirty countries. Employing a multi-method empirical strategy that integrates dynamic panel econometrics, Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA), and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), this study identifies the critical enablers and interaction effects that distinguish high-efficiency systems from lagging ones. Preliminary findings indicate that renewable electricity share, localized processing infrastructure, and coherent policy frameworks are not only influential but often essential for achieving elevated levels of circular performance. These results offer timely, actionable insights for policymakers, regulators, and supply chain leaders aiming to strengthen resource circularity and reduce emissions in battery supply chains. More broadly, the CES framework provides a scalable, evidence-based tool for evaluating circular economy outcomes and guiding the next generation of global battery governance.